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The Heart Failure Society of America’s HF STATS 2026 report estimates that 7.7 million U.S. adults have heart failure and projects that number will reach 11.4 million by 2050. It also reports rising mortality, increasing death rates among younger adults, and low use of recommended medications among eligible patients.
The Heart Failure Society of America’s HF STATS 2026 report projects that the number of U.S. adults with heart failure will rise from an estimated 7.7 million, or 3%, to 11.4 million, or 3.8%, by 2050. The report also documents rising mortality and low use of recommended medicines, raising concern that the growing burden may continue unless prevention and treatment improve.
The report estimates that heart failure affects 3% of U.S. adults now. It projects prevalence at 3.2%, or 8.7 million adults, in 2030; 3.6%, or 10.3 million, in 2040; and 3.8%, or 11.4 million, in 2050. The authors link the projected increase to an aging population and rising rates of obesity, hypertension, and other cardiometabolic risk factors. They also estimate that about one in four Americans will develop heart failure during their lifetimes.
Mortality has also risen. The report says age-adjusted heart failure mortality increased approximately 37% between 2010 and 2023, reversing more than a decade of earlier progress. For younger adults, unadjusted mortality rates more than doubled among people ages 25–44, from 0.6 to 1.4 deaths per 100,000, between 2001 and 2020. Among people ages 45–64, the rate nearly doubled over that period, from 6.4 to 12.5 per 100,000.
The report identifies a treatment gap for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Real-world data cited in the report indicate that just 18% of more than 3 million patients in that group receive all four recommended medication classes: beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, and SGLT2 inhibitors. The report describes these guideline-directed therapies as underused despite their established benefits and relatively low costs.
Rising Burden Meets Treatment Gaps
The projections point to a larger population needing diagnosis, ongoing care, and treatment over coming decades. The report’s authors say the trend reflects both population aging and increasing risk factors, while the mortality figures show that the burden is not confined to prevalence forecasts. These figures describe population trends; they do not predict an individual person’s likelihood of developing heart failure.
The gap in use of recommended medicines is a practical concern raised by the report and accompanying commentary. If eligible patients do not start or remain on therapies that clinicians recommend, the potential benefits may not reach them. The authors call for stronger prevention, earlier recognition, wider use of proven treatments, and continued research. The report also points to racial and geographic differences in care and a shrinking pipeline of advanced heart failure specialists as challenges for health systems.
Younger Adults and Changing Trends
Heart failure remains less common among younger adults than older groups. The report estimates prevalence at 0.1% for men and 0.2% for women ages 20–39, and at 2.2% for men and 1.8% for women ages 40–59. However, the authors say hospitalization rates are declining among adults 65 and older while rising among younger adults. The mortality increases reported for ages 25–44 and 45–64 add to the case for paying attention to risk earlier in adulthood.
In an accompanying editorial, Jerice Banola and Andrew Ambrosy of Kaiser Permanente San Francisco Medical Center recommended more emphasis on screening and controlling risk factors in early adulthood. They also suggested greater use of risk scores and natriuretic peptide testing for patients with stage B heart failure. These are recommendations in the editorial, not findings that the report’s prevalence estimates prove a particular screening strategy will reduce mortality.
The annual HF STATS report was published in the Journal of Cardiac Failure. Its authors, chaired by Eiran Gorodeski of University Hospitals Harrington Heart & Vascular Institute and Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, assembled national data on prevalence, deaths, care, and trends. The report describes a public health challenge and argues that care delivery must improve alongside clinical knowledge.
“HF STATS 2026 reports a condition at a critical inflection point: rising mortality, younger age at onset, an expanding at-risk population, and widening gaps between evidence and practice.”
— HF STATS 2026 authors, chaired by Eiran Gorodeski
Limits of the Available Data
The report provides national estimates and projections, but the supplied material does not specify the assumptions or uncertainty ranges behind the forecasts through 2050. The projected figures should be read as estimates, not as a guarantee of how many people will have heart failure in each future year.
The reported mortality rates cover particular age groups and time periods, and the younger-age figures are unadjusted. The material does not establish why mortality rose or quantify how much any single risk factor, care disparity, or treatment gap contributed. It also does not give a timeline or targets for closing the medication-use gap.
Turning Evidence Into Routine Care
The report’s authors call for coordinated work across clinicians, institutions, payers, policymakers, and communities. The accompanying editorialists say implementation could include electronic health record decision support, multidisciplinary programs to help clinicians initiate and adjust guideline-directed medicines, and simpler medication regimens. They also call for better long-term continuation of treatment.
For younger adults, the recommendations in a separate editorial focus on risk-factor screening and control, along with selected risk scores and natriuretic peptide testing for people with stage B heart failure. The supplied report material does not identify a specific next policy decision, implementation deadline, or follow-up publication. Progress will be judged over time by whether prevention improves, more eligible patients receive and continue recommended therapies, and mortality trends change.
Key Questions
How many U.S. adults have heart failure now?
The HF STATS 2026 report estimates 7.7 million adults, or 3% of the U.S. adult population, have heart failure.
How many cases does the report project by 2050?
The report projects 11.4 million adults, or 3.8% of the population, will have heart failure by 2050. This is a projection, not a confirmed future count.
What did the report find about heart failure deaths?
It reports that age-adjusted heart failure mortality increased approximately 37% from 2010 to 2023. Separately, unadjusted rates more than doubled for ages 25–44 and nearly doubled for ages 45–64 from 2001 to 2020.
What treatment gap did the report identify?
Real-world data cited in the report indicate that 18% of more than 3 million patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction receive all four recommended medication classes.
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